Our Methodology

How we turn thousands of data points into actionable intelligence

Data-Driven Intelligence You Can Trust

Cadastre is built on a foundation of 200,000+ scraped public records across 5 jurisdictions using 24+ live scrapers. We aggregate zoning cases, building permits, crime data, property assessments, variance outcomes, business activity, and census demographics into a single platform.

We don't just show you data—we tell you what's going to happen next.

Step 1: Comprehensive Data Collection

We aggregate data from government sources across 5 jurisdictions to create the most complete picture of property and zoning activity in the DMV and Baltimore.

📋 Washington DC

Dataset Size: 5,012+ BZA cases, 2,471+ property risk assessments

What We Collect:

  • Board of Zoning Adjustment (BZA) cases: variance type, relief details, outcomes, board votes
  • Tax delinquency status, amounts owed, foreclosure status (DC OTR)
  • Housing code violations: severity, fines, days outstanding (DCRA)
  • Building permit activity: 5-year history, types, values
  • 311 service requests: pest/rodent, mold, noise, structural complaints
  • Vacant & blighted property registry
  • Neighborhood demographic data & zoning classifications

Update Frequency: Weekly (BZA, 311), Bi-weekly (violations), Monthly (tax)

🏛️ Arlington County, VA

Dataset Size: 324 BZA cases, 5,000+ assessments, 50,000+ building permits

What We Collect:

  • Board of Zoning Appeals: use permits, variances, special exceptions (2020–2025)
  • Property assessments: 5,000+ records, avg assessed value $625K
  • Building permits: 50,000+ permits across 18,353 unique properties
  • Stale property identification: 9,056 properties with no permits in 10+ years
  • Crime data & safety indicators
  • Gentrification analysis: development trends, site plans, distress indicators

Sources: Arlington BZA (Granicus), County DataHub API, Property Search, GIS services

🏘️ Alexandria, VA

Dataset Size: 34+ BZA cases, 252 BAR cases, 17 planning commission SUPs

What We Collect:

  • Board of Zoning Appeals cases (2021–2026)
  • Board of Architectural Review: 252 cases across Parker Gray, Old & Historic districts
  • Planning Commission: development SUP cases via Legistar API
  • Development projects & active planning data
  • Gentrification & distress indicators

Sources: Alexandria BZA, Legistar API, City Manager’s Office, Real Estate portal

🏢 Montgomery County, MD

Dataset Size: 40K+ crime incidents, 50K+ building permits, 8K+ zoning variances

What We Collect:

  • Crime incidents: 40,000+ records with location, type, trend analysis
  • Building permits: residential, commercial, demolition, electrical, mechanical
  • Zoning variances & special exceptions: 8,000+ cases
  • Business open/close tracking: food establishment data as distress/growth indicators
  • Census & demographic data for gentrification scoring
  • Business property tax assessments

Sources: Montgomery County Open Data (Socrata), Census API

🏙️ Baltimore, MD

Dataset Size: 50K+ crime incidents, 20K+ building permits, 30K+ code violations

What We Collect:

  • Part 1 crime data: incidents with type, location, district, neighborhood
  • Building permits: permit type, status, issued date, cost estimates
  • Housing code violations: violation type, status, fines, neighborhood
  • Stale property identification: properties with no recent permit activity
  • Census & demographic data for gentrification scoring

Sources: Baltimore Open Data (Socrata), ArcGIS REST API, Census API

Our Data by the Numbers

DC BZA Cases by Ward

Distribution of 5,012 DC zoning cases across 8 wards

Case Outcomes

Historical approval rates show strong success patterns

Step 2: Foreclosure Risk Score Calculation

Our proprietary algorithm combines multiple risk factors to generate a comprehensive foreclosure risk score from 0-100.

Risk Score Components

Each property receives a score based on weighted factors across five categories:

Tax Delinquency

0-30 points

Calculation:

  • +10 points per year of delinquency (max 30)
  • +30 points if in active foreclosure
  • +5 points if tax sale scheduled

Why it matters: Tax delinquency is the strongest predictor of financial distress. Properties 2+ years delinquent have a 67% higher chance of foreclosure.

Code Violations

0-25 points

Calculation:

  • +2 points per open violation (max 10)
  • +10 points for critical violations (safety issues)
  • +5 points if fines are escalating (unpaid >90 days)

Why it matters: Open violations indicate neglect or inability to maintain property. Critical violations suggest severe financial distress.

Permit Activity (Inverse)

0-20 points

Calculation:

  • +20 points if no permits in 5+ years
  • +10 points if no permits in 3-5 years
  • +5 points if no permits in 1-3 years
  • 0 points if permit activity within 1 year

Why it matters: Lack of permits suggests owner is not investing in maintenance or improvements—a sign of disengagement or cash flow problems.

311 Complaints

0-25 points

Calculation:

  • +10 points if 10+ total complaints in past year
  • +5 points if 3+ pest/rodent complaints
  • +10 points if 2+ mold/moisture complaints

Why it matters: High complaint volume indicates tenant problems, property deterioration, or landlord neglect. Pest and mold complaints correlate with severe deferred maintenance.

Risk Level Classification

Critical Risk

70-100 points

Multiple severe issues. High probability of foreclosure or distressed sale within 12 months.

High Risk

50-69 points

Significant financial or maintenance issues. Owner likely motivated to sell.

Moderate Risk

30-49 points

Some concerning indicators. Property may be available at below-market pricing.

Low Risk

0-29 points

Property appears to be well-maintained with no major financial distress signals.

Risk Score Distribution Across 4,971 Properties

Our data shows most properties (68%) fall into the Low or Moderate risk categories, with high-risk properties representing strong acquisition opportunities for investors.

Example: Real Property Assessment

Property: 1234 Example Street NW, Ward 1

Tax Delinquency:

2 years delinquent = +20 points

Code Violations:

3 open violations (+6), 1 critical (+10) = +16 points

Permit Activity:

No permits in 4 years = +10 points

311 Complaints:

14 complaints in past year (+10), 5 pest complaints (+5) = +15 points

Total Risk Score: 61 / 100

High Risk

This property shows multiple distress signals. Owner is likely dealing with cash flow issues and may be motivated to sell. Recommended for off-market outreach.

Step 3: Zoning Variance Approval Prediction

Using 13,000+ historical zoning cases across 5 jurisdictions, we analyze patterns to predict approval probability for new variance applications.

Predictive Factors We Analyze

🗺️ Geographic Patterns

  • Approval rates by ward (Ward 1: 78%, Ward 2: 65%, etc.)
  • ANC (Advisory Neighborhood Commission) support patterns
  • Historic district vs. non-historic
  • Neighborhood development trends

📏 Variance Type Analysis

  • Height variances: 72% approval rate
  • Rear setback: 81% approval rate
  • FAR (Floor Area Ratio): 68% approval rate
  • Parking reduction: 59% approval rate
  • Lot occupancy: 75% approval rate

📊 Request Magnitude

  • Percentage of relief requested vs. code
  • Small requests (<10% relief): 85% approval
  • Medium requests (10-25%): 68% approval
  • Large requests (>25%): 42% approval

🏘️ Property Context

  • Existing use (residential, commercial, mixed)
  • Lot characteristics (corner lot, alley access, etc.)
  • Neighbor support/opposition
  • Precedent cases within 3 blocks

👥 Board Composition

  • Individual board member voting patterns
  • Vote correlation analysis
  • Historical consistency scores

⏱️ Timing Patterns

  • Average decision timeline: 120 days
  • Seasonal approval patterns
  • Rush cases vs. standard timeline

Variance Approval Rates by Type

Approval Rates by Variance Type

Based on 5,012 historical cases

Approval Rate by Request Size

Smaller requests have significantly higher success rates

What You Get: Variance Prediction Report

Sample Prediction

Property: 456 Columbia Road NW, Ward 1

Requested Variance: 12-foot height relief (35' to 47')

73%

Approval Probability

Key Factors Supporting Approval:
  • Ward 1 has 78% approval rate for height variances
  • Relief magnitude (12 feet) is within typical approved range
  • 14 similar cases within 0.5 miles: 12 approved, 2 denied
  • ANC 1A historically supportive of residential development
Potential Concerns:
  • Property is mid-block (corner lots have 15% higher approval)
  • No letters of support from neighbors (yet)
Comparable Cases:
  • Case 23456 (2024): 450 Columbia Rd - 15' height relief - APPROVED
  • Case 22891 (2023): 502 Columbia Rd - 10' height relief - APPROVED
  • Case 21334 (2022): 389 Columbia Rd - 18' height relief - DENIED (too large)
Estimated Timeline:

Application to decision: 115-130 days (based on Ward 1 averages)

Data Quality & Accuracy

🔄 Continuous Updates

24+ scrapers run across 5 jurisdictions:

  • Zoning/BZA cases: Weekly (DC, Arlington, Alexandria)
  • Crime data: Weekly (DC, Montgomery County, Baltimore)
  • Building permits: Bi-weekly (all 5 jurisdictions)
  • Tax & assessments: Monthly
  • Business activity: Monthly (Montgomery County)
  • Code violations: Weekly (Baltimore)

✓ Validation & Cleaning

Every data point goes through:

  • Duplicate detection
  • Standardized address formatting
  • Cross-reference validation
  • Manual spot-check sampling

📊 Transparency

We show you the source data:

  • Every prediction links to source cases
  • Risk scores show factor breakdown
  • Data collection timestamps visible
  • Update frequency disclosed

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

Cadastre provides predictive analysis based on historical data, not legal advice or guarantees. Our risk scores and approval probabilities are estimates designed to inform your decision-making, not replace professional judgment.

We recommend:

  • Using our data as one input in your decision process
  • Consulting with licensed zoning attorneys for legal matters
  • Conducting your own due diligence on properties
  • Verifying critical information with official government sources

While we strive for accuracy, data is sourced from public records which may contain errors or be outdated. See our Terms of Service for full limitations of liability.

Our Technology Stack

Data Collection

Python-based web scrapers with:

  • BeautifulSoup for HTML parsing
  • Requests for API integration
  • Automated retry logic
  • Rate limiting (respectful scraping)

Data Storage

Firebase Firestore (cloud NoSQL database):

  • Real-time sync
  • Scalable infrastructure
  • Backup to CSV/JSON
  • API-ready architecture

Analysis Engine

Proprietary algorithms written in Python:

  • Multi-factor risk scoring
  • Pattern matching algorithms
  • Probability calculations
  • Trend analysis

See Our Methodology in Action

See how our data across 5 jurisdictions can inform your next investment

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